Cost Inputs & Assumptions
ElevenLabs TTS Plans
| Plan | Monthly Cost | Credits Included | Cost per Credit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scale | $330/mo | 2,000,000 | $0.000165 |
| Business | $1,320/mo | 11,000,000 | $0.000120 |
Note: Manifest uses different ElevenLabs models depending on the feature:
- Meditations, affirmations, breathwork narration:
eleven_turbo_v2_5— 0.5 credits per character - Coach voice messages:
eleven_multilingual_v2(default) with some coaches using v3 — 1.0 credits per character (2x cost)
Gemini API Pricing
| Model | Alias | Input (per 1M tokens) | Output (per 1M tokens) |
|---|---|---|---|
| gemini-3.0-flash (primary) | gemini-flash-latest | $0.50 | $3.00 |
| gemini-3.0-flash-lite (lightweight) | gemini-flash-lite-latest | $0.25 | $1.50 |
Infrastructure Costs
| Service | Cost | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Convex Pro | $25/mo | Serverless backend — included at all scales up to 25M function calls |
| Auth0 | Free (<7.5K MAU), $13/mo (Pro) | Free tier covers first ~7,500 users |
| Sentry | Free (<5K events), $26/mo (Team) | Error tracking |
| Apple Developer | $99/year ($8.25/mo) | Required for App Store |
| Apple Commission | 15% (Small Business Program) | Under $1M proceeds/year; 30% above |
ElevenLabs Credit Usage Per User
Character Counts per Content Type
Based on codebase word targets, approximately 6 characters per word.
| Content | Avg Characters | Model | Credits |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-min meditation | ~3,700 chars | eleven_turbo_v2_5 (0.5/char) | ~1,850 |
| 15-min meditation | ~5,700 chars | eleven_turbo_v2_5 (0.5/char) | ~2,850 |
| Coach voice message | ~1,050 chars | v3 (1.0/char) | ~1,050 |
| Affirmation voice | ~150 chars | eleven_turbo_v2_5 (0.5/char) | ~75 |
| Breathwork narration | ~2,400 chars | eleven_turbo_v2_5 (0.5/char) | ~1,200 |
Coach voice cost increase: Coach messages using v3 cost 1.0 credits per character (2x turbo v2.5). A ~1,050 character coach message now costs 1,050 credits instead of 525. This is the primary driver of the increased per-user credit usage.
Monthly Usage by User Profile
| Profile | Meditations (turbo v2.5) | Coach Messages (v3) | Affirmations (turbo v2.5) | Narrations (turbo v2.5) | Total Credits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Light (casual) | 2 × 2,100 = 4,200 | 2 × 1,050 = 2,100 | 5 × 75 = 375 | 0 | ~6,675 |
| Baseline (engaged) | 8 × 2,100 = 16,800 | 4 × 1,050 = 4,200 | 20 × 75 = 1,500 | 2 × 1,200 = 2,400 | ~24,900 |
| Power (max usage) | 20 × 2,500 = 50,000 | 10 × 1,050 = 10,500 | 50 × 75 = 3,750 | 10 × 1,200 = 12,000 | ~76,250 |
LLM Cost Analysis: Gemini vs. Claude
Gemini 3.0 Flash — Per-Action Costs
| Action | Input Tokens | Output Tokens | Cost/Action | Monthly (Baseline User) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meditation script | ~4,000 | ~4,000 | $0.014 | $0.112 (8/mo) |
| Coach message script | ~3,000 | ~2,000 | $0.0075 | $0.030 (4/mo) |
| Deep imagining script | ~4,000 | ~4,000 | $0.014 | $0.014 (1/mo) |
| Weekly actions | ~3,000 | ~1,500 | $0.006 | $0.024 (4/mo) |
| Follow-up questions | ~2,500 | ~1,000 | $0.004 | $0.020 (5/mo) |
| Journal insight | ~3,500 | ~1,000 | $0.005 | $0.010 (2/mo) |
| Subtotal (Flash) | $0.210 |
Lightweight Tasks (Flash Lite)
| Action | Input Tokens | Output Tokens | Cost/Action | Monthly (Baseline User) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal title | ~800 | ~30 | $0.0002 | $0.002 (10/mo) |
| Affirmation enhancement | ~1,500 | ~256 | $0.0008 | $0.004 (5/mo) |
| Belief affirmations | ~2,000 | ~512 | $0.001 | $0.005 (5/mo) |
| Dynamic question | ~2,000 | ~256 | $0.001 | $0.005 (5/mo) |
| Subtotal (Flash Lite) | $0.016 |
Total Gemini cost per baseline user: ~$0.23/month (Flash $0.21 + Flash Lite $0.02)
Claude Alternative — Same Actions
| Action | Gemini 3.0 Flash | Claude Sonnet 4.6 ($3/$15) | Claude Haiku 4.5 ($1/$5) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meditation script | $0.014 | $0.072 | $0.024 |
| Coach message | $0.0075 | $0.039 | $0.013 |
| Weekly actions | $0.006 | $0.031 | $0.010 |
| Follow-up questions | $0.004 | $0.018 | $0.006 |
| Journal insight | $0.005 | $0.021 | $0.007 |
| Goal title (lite task) | $0.0002 | — | $0.001 |
Monthly Baseline User Total
| Provider | Config | Monthly Cost | vs. Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini (current) | Flash + Flash Lite | $0.23 | — |
| Claude (quality) | Sonnet + Haiku | $0.89 | 3.9x more |
| Claude (budget) | Haiku for everything | $0.30 | 1.3x more |
Gemini 3.0 Flash is 3.9x cheaper than Claude Sonnet 4.6 for the same tasks. However, Claude may produce higher-quality meditation scripts and coach messages — the creative writing quality difference could improve user retention and justify the cost. If you switch to Claude, use Sonnet for meditation and coach scripts (quality-critical) and Haiku for everything else (summaries, titles, questions). Test with 50 users before committing.
Monthly Infrastructure Costs by Scale
Not all subscribers actively generate AI content. Industry benchmark: 35% of paying subscribers are active per month. ElevenLabs is the dominant cost. Plan selection is based on credit headroom.
| Subscribers | Active Users (35%) | Credits Needed | EL Plan | EL Cost | Infra* | Total Cost/mo | Per Subscriber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 18 | ~448K | Scale (2M) | $330 | $37 | $367 | $7.34 |
| 100 | 35 | ~872K | Scale (2M) | $330 | $41 | $371 | $3.71 |
| 250 | 88 | ~2.19M | Business (11M) | $1,320 | $53 | $1,373 | $5.49 |
| 500 | 175 | ~4.36M | Business (11M) | $1,320 | $73 | $1,393 | $2.79 |
| 1,000 | 350 | ~8.72M | Business (11M) | $1,320 | $114 | $1,434 | $1.43 |
| 2,000 | 700 | ~17.4M | 2× Business | $2,640 | $194 | $2,834 | $1.42 |
* Infra = Convex Pro ($25) + Auth0 ($0-13) + Sentry ($0-26) + Gemini API ($4-81) + Apple Dev ($8.25). ElevenLabs is 90%+ of total cost at every scale.
Key inflection point: At 250 subscribers, the Scale Plan (2M credits) is now insufficient — 88 active users × 24,900 credits = 2.19M, exceeding the 2M cap. You must upgrade to Business at ~115 subscribers (previously ~180), which jumps costs from ~$371/mo to $1,373/mo. This means subscribers 116-500 are the most expensive cohort — you're paying for Business-tier capacity while still filling it. Profitability improves dramatically at 500+.
Monthly Profitability by Price Tier
Apple takes 15% under the Small Business Program (<$1M proceeds/year). All figures below assume 100% of subscribers are on the shown plan (in practice, plan mix varies). Two pricing strategies modeled: one competitive with the manifestation app market, one at recommended premium positioning.
Scenario A: Competitive Pricing
Priced to match the manifestation app market: Innertune ($9.99/mo), Insight Timer ($9.99/mo), Manifestive ($8.99/mo).
| Subs | Cost/mo | $3.99/wk gross | Net | Profit | Margin | $9.99/mo gross | Net | Profit | Margin | $49.99/yr gross | Net | Profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | $367 | $866 | $736 | $369 | 50% | $500 | $425 | $58 | 14% | $208 | $177 | -$190 | -107% |
| 100 | $371 | $1,731 | $1,471 | $1,100 | 75% | $999 | $849 | $478 | 56% | $417 | $354 | -$17 | -5% |
| 250 | $1,373 | $4,328 | $3,679 | $2,306 | 63% | $2,498 | $2,123 | $750 | 35% | $1,042 | $886 | -$487 | -55% |
| 500 | $1,393 | $8,657 | $7,358 | $5,965 | 81% | $4,995 | $4,246 | $2,853 | 67% | $2,083 | $1,771 | $378 | 21% |
| 1,000 | $1,434 | $17,314 | $14,717 | $13,283 | 90% | $9,990 | $8,492 | $7,058 | 83% | $4,166 | $3,541 | $2,107 | 60% |
Weekly revenue = price × 4.33 weeks/mo. Annual revenue = price ÷ 12 months. Net = gross − 15% Apple commission.
Scenario B: Recommended Premium Pricing
Priced between manifestation apps and meditation incumbents. Justified by AI personalization costs and feature depth.
| Subs | Cost/mo | $5.99/wk gross | Net | Profit | Margin | $14.99/mo gross | Net | Profit | Margin | $79.99/yr gross | Net | Profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | $367 | $1,297 | $1,102 | $735 | 67% | $750 | $637 | $270 | 42% | $333 | $283 | -$84 | -30% |
| 100 | $371 | $2,594 | $2,205 | $1,834 | 83% | $1,499 | $1,274 | $903 | 71% | $667 | $567 | $196 | 35% |
| 250 | $1,373 | $6,484 | $5,511 | $4,138 | 75% | $3,748 | $3,186 | $1,813 | 57% | $1,667 | $1,417 | $44 | 3% |
| 500 | $1,393 | $12,969 | $11,023 | $9,630 | 87% | $7,495 | $6,371 | $4,978 | 78% | $3,333 | $2,833 | $1,440 | 51% |
| 1,000 | $1,434 | $25,937 | $22,046 | $20,612 | 94% | $14,990 | $12,742 | $11,308 | 89% | $6,666 | $5,666 | $4,232 | 75% |
Realistic Plan Mix Model
In practice, subscribers distribute across plans. Industry data (Adapty 2026): ~55% weekly, ~25% monthly, ~20% annual in Health & Fitness. Modeling with recommended pricing:
| Subs | Cost/mo | Weekly Rev (55%) | Monthly Rev (25%) | Annual Rev (20%) | Total Net Rev | Total Profit | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | $367 | $606 | $159 | $57 | $822 | $455 | 55% |
| 100 | $371 | $1,213 | $319 | $113 | $1,645 | $1,274 | 77% |
| 250 | $1,373 | $3,031 | $796 | $283 | $4,110 | $2,737 | 67% |
| 500 | $1,393 | $6,063 | $1,593 | $567 | $8,223 | $6,830 | 83% |
| 1,000 | $1,434 | $12,125 | $3,186 | $1,133 | $16,444 | $15,010 | 91% |
Revenue figures are net of Apple's 15% commission. Mix: 55% on $5.99/wk, 25% on $14.99/mo, 20% on $79.99/yr.
Warning: At <100 subscribers, annual-only pricing ($49.99/yr competitive or even $79.99/yr recommended) is unprofitable or marginal. At 250 subscribers, the Business plan upgrade creates a cost cliff — annual-only pricing at $49.99/yr is deeply unprofitable there. The weekly plan is essential at early scale — it generates 4-6x more revenue per subscriber than annual. Annual plans become viable profit contributors only at 100+ subscribers where fixed costs are amortized, and only at 500+ after the Business plan upgrade.
Side-by-Side: Competitive vs. Recommended (Monthly Plan Only)
Since monthly is the most intuitive comparison point:
| Subs | Cost/mo | $9.99/mo Profit | Margin | $14.99/mo Profit | Margin | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | $367 | $58 | 14% | $270 | 42% | +$212/mo |
| 100 | $371 | $478 | 56% | $903 | 71% | +$425/mo |
| 250 | $1,373 | $750 | 35% | $1,813 | 57% | +$1,063/mo |
| 500 | $1,393 | $2,853 | 67% | $4,978 | 78% | +$2,125/mo |
| 1,000 | $1,434 | $7,058 | 83% | $11,308 | 89% | +$4,250/mo |
The $5/month premium is worth $4,250/month at 1,000 subscribers. Competitive pricing ($9.99/mo) is profitable at all scales above 50 subscribers, but leaves significant money on the table. The premium pricing ($14.99/mo) is justified by AI personalization that budget competitors don't offer. Note the 250-subscriber cliff: Business plan upgrade drops $9.99/mo margin from 56% to 35%. Industry data confirms: higher prices lead to ~7x higher LTV, and price tests only improve conversion 28% of the time but lift LTV 46% of the time.
Recommendation: Launch at recommended pricing ($14.99/mo). If trial-to-paid conversion falls below 30%, test competitive pricing ($9.99/mo) as an alternative. Never lower the weekly price — weekly subscribers generate the majority of revenue.
When to Upgrade ElevenLabs Plans
| Trigger | Metric | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Scale → Business | >115 paying subscribers (or >80 active users/month) | Scale Plan (2M credits) is exhausted at ~80 active users × 24,900 credits = 1.99M. Upgrade before you hit the cap. |
| Business → Enterprise | >1,260 paying subscribers (or >441 active) | Contact ElevenLabs for custom pricing |
The Scale Plan ($330/mo) supports up to ~80 active users or ~230 subscribers at 35% active rate. The Business Plan ($1,320/mo) supports up to ~441 active users or ~1,260 subscribers.
With coach v3 pricing (1 credit/char), per-user credit usage increased from ~18K to ~24.9K/month. This moved the Scale → Business trigger from ~180 subscribers down to ~115 subscribers. Plan accordingly — the Business upgrade happens earlier than originally modeled.
Competitive Pricing Landscape
| App | AI Content? | Weekly | Monthly | Annual | Lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifest (recommended) | Yes (full pipeline) | $5.99 | $14.99 | $79.99 | $199.99 |
| Stella | Yes (audio stories) | $6.99 | — | — | — |
| Calm | Partial | — | $16.99 | $79.99 | $499.99 |
| Headspace | Partial (Ebb AI) | — | $12.99 | $69.99 | — |
| I Am | No | — | $14.99 | $35.99 | $99.99 |
| Innertune | No | — | $9.99 | $49.99 | $39.99 |
| Manifestive | No | $1.99 | $8.99 | — | — |
| Bliss Brain | Yes (AI meditation) | — | — | $29.99 | — |
| Insight Timer | No | — | $9.99 | $59.99 | — |
Why this pricing is defensible: Manifest is priced at the premium end of manifestation apps but below the major meditation incumbents (Calm, Headspace). This works because: (1) AI-generated personalized content has real per-user costs that budget apps can't match, (2) the closest AI competitor (Stella) charges $6.99/week ($30/mo effective) with far fewer features, and (3) Calm charges $16.99/month for pre-recorded content. Manifest's $14.99/month for AI-personalized content is a value play, not a premium play.
Final Pricing Recommendation
$5.99/week with 3-day free trial
Highest conversion rate (1.7-7.4x vs annual). Captures impulse signups. Undercuts Stella at $6.99/week. Generates highest 12-month LTV at ~$54.
$14.99/month
Best balance of conversion and margin. Aligned with Headspace ($12.99) and below Calm ($16.99). Clean price point.
$79.99/year ($6.67/month)
Highlight as "Most Popular" for social proof. 55% savings vs monthly. Profitable at all scales (36% margin at 100 subs, 75% at 1K).
$199.99 one-time
Captures commitment-averse users. 24-month payback. Between I Am ($99.99) and Calm ($499.99).
Launch with all four plans from day one. Stella's biggest user complaint is offering only one plan — don't repeat this. Weekly+trial is the primary conversion vehicle. Annual is the primary retention vehicle. Monitor plan mix monthly and adjust prices only after 500+ subscribers provide statistically significant data.